Top 10 2012-13 Fantasy Hockey Disappointments

anderwho2513 1,247 views 11 items

Depending how this goes, this could be my first and last list, or the first of many. I don't know. We'll see.

This list, in no particular order, describes 10 highly regarded NHL players who will be relied upon by many fantasy owners this year who have a strong probability of failing to meet expectations. You may gasp. You may shrug. You may agree. The only thing I know for sure is that you will disagree vehemently and call me a homer for at least 1 prediction.

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1

Claude Giroux

1988

“ I've long been preaching how skilled Giroux is, and how he would thrust himself into the upper echelon of the NHL before long. I also said he would have only 1 year above 90 points before settling into his projected scoring of between 75-85 points for the remainder of his prime. So, consider this the second half of my sermon. Giroux led the league in PP points last year, a feat he accomplished in large part to Scott Hartnell being amongst the league leaders in PPG. Alas, repeating such a feat is beyond our gingered haired twosome. The Flyers this season will be limited by their defense. Not because they cannot play defense. (With the big bodies of Coburn, Grossmann, Meszaros, and Luke Schenn protecting the crease, expect Bryzgalov to bounce back to respectability [and dare I say a must start candidate?]). No, the breakdowns will come in the stretch pass outlets that the Flyers worked to perfection against the Penguins in the playoffs. Only Timonen and Meszaros can be considered 2-way defensemen, and both are coming off rather severe injuries. As a result, expect less odd man rushes, which means less goals for the team, and with the expected expansion of the roles of 2nd year players Read, Brayden Schenn, and Couturier, more mouths to feed. Add in the reason I will describe below and it all adds up to Giroux coming down from the lofty heights of the elite players and settling into a spot amongst the great players. For fantasy purposes, Giroux is not the guy you want to sell the farm to get because he will not carry your team by himself. He's a bottom of the first round guy that you can pair up with another great player on the wraparound of your snake draft. „
2

Scott Hartnell

1982

“ All the reasons listed above for Giroux hold here, but I'd like to add one more shot to the heart of Hartnell fans. Hartnell shattered his career highs in SOG and shooting percentage in 2011-12, shooting 232 times with a staggering 16% success rate. That kind of shooting I would expect from Stamkos (career 17%). Hartnell's goal scoring totals since the lockout are: 25, 22, 24, 30, 14, 24, 37. Seven seasons, 4 of which come within the 20-25 goal mark, with 2 more fairly close to it, practically equidistant from it, that I will attribute to good luck one year followed by poor luck the following year. And then you have last year's 37, which was a product of Giroux's and Jagr's exceptional playmaking rather than a sudden realization of lost potential. This year Jagr is gone, and Giroux will likely falter a bit, and when the players that resurrected your career no longer have the power to keep it resurrected, you are in for a rough reality check. For you fantasy drafters, Hartnell will still get you his customary 20-25 goals, 45 points, and 125 PIMs, but he should not be in your top 40 players for standard leagues, and heaven help the idiot who takes him ahead of Corey Perry. „
3

Mike Smith

1982

“ I've seen this movie before. Anyone else remember when Smith took a 2.40 GAA and .925 sv% into Christmas '08, playing behind the worst team in the league? Smith has always had the talent, but he's never had the consistency. In 2011-12, everything went right for him. The Coyotes got themselves a new owner who seemed like he was finally going to be the one to buy the franchise, won their first division title as the Phoenix Coyotes, and had a Cinderella run that saw them win their first 2 playoff series in decades. Now, the ownership situation is in shambles (again), they lost their leading scorer to free agency, and are on the verge of losing their captain to free agency as well. That kind of adversity made Smith lose his starting job in Tampa to a guy almost old enough to be his father. I'm interested to see how the 30-year old handles it this time around. One thing's for certain: going with him as your savior between the pipes this fantasy season is riskier than skinny dipping through the zoo's alligator exhibit during feeding time. „
4

Jonathan Quick

1986

“ Two words for you: Cup. Hangover. It's a real thing. Look at the last 4 Cup winning goalies: Osgood, Fleury, Niemi, and Thomas. From their Cup year to the following year, all but Niemi had substantially worse years, and Niemi was the only one playing behind a new team (a.k.a. the team in front of him wasn't suffering from a Cup hangover as well). Osgood added an entire goal to his GAA (2.07 in 2008 to 3.07 in 2009), Fleury's sv% in 2010 dipped all the way down to a paltry .905, and Tim Thomas' GAA went up 0.36 and his sv% dropped by .018, but of course his 2011 season was one of the best all-time, and there's really no way he was going to improve upon it anyway. But the point remains; goalies that win the Cup, and particularly workhorse goalies like Quick who has played 202 games the past 3 years, typically run out of gas at some point during the season. Ride him like you would for fantasy, but make sure to have a plan B ready when his performance starts to slip. „
5

Steven Stamkos

1990

“ As I was coming up with the 10 players for this list, I had something really interesting to note about Stamkos, but I didn't write it down the way I did with my notes for all the other players, and now I can't remember it. Just know that, like Hartnell above him, he bested his career high in SOG and shattered his high in shooting percentage, a combination that leads to unsustainable goal production. Given those stats, and the ever increasing age of Marty St. Louis, draft him with the expectation of 45 goals and 90 points, and be pleasantly surprised with anything more. And if I think of my little tidbit, I'll add it in later. „
6

Rick Nash

1984

“ Oh, don't I love my shooting percentage stats? Nash has an inverse relation between his SOG totals and his shooting percentage. The more he shoots, the lower his sh%. Coming to NY, a team desperate for offensive firepower (maybe their dumbass coach's strategy of using 3 forwards as defensemen to play a 0-5 at all times has something to do with it?), who will be without their leading goalscorer Marian Gaborik for the first few months of the season, expect Nash to be the focal point of the team's attack (if you can call Tortorella's offensive scheme an attack) (Bonus 2nd parenthetical: The only thing Tortorella ever attacks is the media after they ask him any question at all), which means more SOG for Nash, and thus a lower sh%. Add to that his decreasing output for 3 straight years, Tortorella's aforementioned schemes, and his being on the wrong side of 27 (start of the prime for most defensemen, end of their prime for forwards), and you are looking at an overrated player who continues his underachieving ways. „
7

Pavel Datsyuk

1978

“ Now 34, the flashy Russian has been on the downswing for several years in a row. He has missed 38 games the past 2 years with injuries, and those numbers don't ever seem to get better with age, and he scored just 19 goals in 70 games last year. Without Lidstrom at the back, all Red Wings, particularly those who picked up a lot of PP points alongside Lidstrom on the first unit, stand to take a hit in their point production, and Datsyuk is no exception. He'll give you the great +/- and the assists, but he's no longer a guy to build a team around. He'll be comparable to Mike Ribiero, and no one is ranking Ribiero where they rank Datsyuk. Putting him anywhere higher than 3rd on your forward depth chart is setting yourself up for disappointment. „
8

Ray Whitney

1972

“ The ageless wonder is taking his wizardry to Dallas, but alas, I am not inclined to follow him there. In a recent interview in his native Czech Republic, Jaromir Jagr was quoted as saying he chose to sign in Dallas because they promised him a top line spot, something other teams were not willing to do. While things are subject to change, you have to believe that Nieuwendyk signed Jagr hoping he could do for Jamie Benn and Loui Eriksson what he did for Giroux and Hartnell last year. If Jagr does play the top line in Dallas, then Whitney would be relegated to playing next to the ever-disappointing Derek Roy and the perennially-injured Brendan Morrow or Michael Ryder, who is less likely to repeat his 35 goal performance than Hartnell is to repeat his 37 goal outburst. Either way, Whitney is more likely to post numbers closer to his 09-10 and 10-11 seasons than his 11-12, which means 20 goals, 55 points would be a more realistic expectation than a repeat of his 2nd best offensive season of his career. „
9

Tyler Ennis

1989

“ People look at last year's injury riddled first half and his heroic 27 points in the final 26 games as the Foligno-Ennis-Stafford line nearly took the beaten up Sabres into the playoffs and think that more of the same is in store for the crafty Ennis. Perfectly logical. Hell, I even agreed with it. But the wave of Ennis Fever is starting to get out of hand. Ennis displayed some great chemistry with the grind it out style of Foligno and the streaky sharpshooter Stafford. But if there is one thing Lindy Ruff will not stand for, it's keeping his lines together for an extended period of time. Never has, never will. With the continued growth of Cody Hodgson and the additions of Steve Ott and the two newly drafted rookies Grigorenko and Girgensons, both fighting for a spot on the team, Ennis may have to move back to wing, where his exceptional creativity is severely limited. Expect a streaky year of around 45 points for the diminutive Ennis. Expecting anything more is dangerous for your title hopes. „
10

Pittsburgh Penguins

“ Speaking of the stretch pass that killed the Penguins in the playoffs, let's talk about the Penguins' system. The Penguins are probably the only team in the league that sends a 2-man forecheck while shorthanded, and even sends a forward deep to chase the puck in a 3-man shorthanded situation. They are the most aggressive team in the league when it comes to chasing pucks to fit their puck possession style. The problem with that is it's easily beaten by the stretch pass, which the Flyers exposed often during their 9 March.April meetings last year. Teams now know how to beat them, which means less puck possession for the team that prides itself on dominating the shot battle. Less shots for players like Malkin and Neal, who were both top 3 in SOG last year, means less goals for the pair. When you factor in Letang coming back down to Earth after finishing last year in the top 5 of team shooting percentage while he was on the ice (a statistic of luck that balances out over the course of a season or two). And I haven't even mentioned that they gave up 30 goals in the playoffs, then decided the best course to correct that was to trade their best defensive defenseman and best defensive forward. Basically, don't put money down on the Vegas favorites, don't count on Fleury to be a top 10 fantasy netminder, and don't expect Neal or Letang to repeat last year's success. But Crosby and Malkin should still be taken 1/2 in the draft as you normally would. „
11

Honorable Mention

“ I was thinking about putting Brian Elliott in the list, but I figured you'd realize a guy with a career 2.60 GAA and .909 career sv% would not repeat his record breaking performance from a year ago. 25% of his starts were shutouts. Yea, that's not happening again. „

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Top 10 2012-13 Fantasy Hockey Disappointments

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