What Would Have Happened If Christopher Columbus Missed The Americas?

If Columbus hadn't landed in America, would Europeans have completely abandoned the idea of a western route to Asia? Would anyone dare to cross the Atlantic, knowing the route had destroyed Columbus's three ships? It's likely that another explorer would have encountered the Americas at some point. But how soon after 1492 would Europeans have attempted to cross the Atlantic?

In 1500, Portuguese explorer Pedro Álvares Cabral landed in Brazil. Cabral wasn't looking for the New World. His fleet had simply swept wide on their journey down the coast of Africa, en route to India. Strong winds landed Cabral in Brazil, instead.

Cabral easily could have been the first European to reach the Americas. If the Portuguese had claimed the entire New World, it would have poured wealth into the Iberian country, completely changing European history.

When Columbus set sail to find a western route to Asia, Portuguese explorers had already shown how promising the eastern route might be. In 1488, Bartolomeu Dias rounded the Cape of Good Hope. Just a decade later, Vasco da Gama sailed to India. Over the course of the 16th century, Portugal established numerous ports on the coasts of Africa, India, China, and even Japan.

Without competition from Spain's New World, Portugal would have dominated Europe's trade networks. While the Ottomans and Italians might have maintained their power in the Mediterranean, Portugal would have benefited from the wealth of Asian trade. Recently, Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva declared, "The routes that the Portuguese created to connect the continents and oceans are the foundation of the world we inhabit today." In the absense of Spanish competition, Portugal's dominance likely would have been even greater.

Over the course of the 15th century, the Aztecs conquered Central Mexico. Their empire successfully subjugated multiple neighboring territories, consolidating their control. However, one territory remained unconquered: Tlaxcala, east of the Aztec capital in Tenochtitlan.

In 1519, Hernan Cortes allied with the Tlaxcalans to defeat the Aztec Empire. Without their vital support, Cortes almost certainly would have failed to conquer the Aztecs. And without Cortes's presence, which came as a direct result of Columbus's discovery, the Aztecs almost certainly would have continued their conquest of Mexico, expanding throughout Central America.

In the 100 years before Spanish contact, the Inca more than doubled the size of their empire. By building alliances with neighbors, the Inca created a strong, sophisticated empire on the Pacific coast of South America. 

However, Pizarro toppled the empire with the help of superior weapons and ruthless tactics. After capturing the Inca ruler Atahualpa and extracting a ransom worth more than $50 million today, Pizarro executed Atahualpa. Even before the Spaniards reached Inca territory, European diseases had swept through, weakening the empire.

Without Spanish contact, the Inca would have continued their expansion, creating a massive empire that could have even conquered South America.

China's dominant Ming Dynasty sent out its own voyages of discovery during the 15th century. Under Admiral Zheng He, the Chinese fleet traveled to India and Africa. However, the Ming quickly took an isolationist turn, declaring China the only civilized part of the world.  

While European traders had a presence in China, they had to acknowledge Chinese superiority. European powers, which would have been weaker without their New World colonies, would have struggled to break into the Chinese market, likely playing an even smaller role in Chinese trade. As a result, China would have continued its role as the dominant power in Asia. With less competition from European powers, especially Portugal and the Dutch, China would have controlled trade throughout Southeast Asia.

Before European contact with North America, several Native American groups were transforming into confederacies. The Iroquois Confederacy, made up of five nations - the Mohawks, Senecas, Onondagas, Cayugas, and Oneidas - dominated from the Great Lakes to New York. They often battled the Algonquin nations for territory in the Northeast.

Prior to Spanish contact, California was home to 300,000 Native Americans broken into about 100 tribes. While relations between tribes were usually peaceful, the separate groups may have consolidated over the 17th and 18th centuries. Aztec expansion might have even reached into California. 

Without the massive drop in population due to European diseases, plus displacement, forced labor, and extermination, North American tribes might have consolidated into several dominant confederacies that could have controlled large amounts of territory.